Category: Real Estate

The commercial refinancing cliff turned out to be a slope. That is not the same as flat ground. Mortgage Bankers Association data puts $875 billion of commercial and multifamily debt maturing in 2026, down from $957 billion in 2025. Another $652 billion sits behind it in 2027. The peak has passed. What remains is a long stretch of loans written at rates that no longer exist, many already extended once. Every one of them arrives at a credit committee that will ask what the property is worth today.

What the Commercial Refinancing Cliff Looks Like in the Data

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes in February. Seventeen percent of the $5.0 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages, or $875 billion, matures in 2026. That is a 9 percent decrease from 2025. MBA’s chief economist called 2025 a transition year. Lenders stopped simply extending loan terms, and the wall of scheduled maturities began to shrink.

The distribution matters more than the headline. Among property types, 30 percent of hotel loans come due this year. Industrial follows at 23 percent, then office at 17, health care at 15, and multifamily at 13. Among lender types, depositories carry $396 billion of the 2026 maturities. CMBS, CLO, and other securitized loans carry $200 billion. Credit companies and warehouse lenders carry $163 billion. Life insurers hold $76 billion. Agency and FHA multifamily paper, by contrast, has only $39 billion coming due.

So the refinancing question in 2026 is not spread evenly. It sits with banks and non-bank lenders, and with the property types that borrowed hardest in the low-rate years. MBA also notes that the figures are unpaid balances as of December 31, 2025. So the amounts at maturity will be somewhat lower. The direction is still the same.

Why a Maturing Loan Becomes an Equity Gap

A loan written in 2019 or 2021 was sized against a value, a rate, and an income stream. All three looked different from today. When it matures, the lender does not care what the property was worth then. The new loan is sized against current value, current net operating income, and current rates.

Three things compress at once. Higher rates mean the same NOI supports less debt, because coverage has to hold. Tighter underwriting means lower loan-to-value limits and more conservative vacancy and expense assumptions. And where value has fallen, the loan-to-value math starts from a smaller number. The gap between what the new loan will support and what the old loan still owes is the equity gap. Someone has to fill it: the borrower with cash, a partner with capital, or the lender with a restructure.

The loans that were extended in 2024 and 2025 are the ones most exposed now. An extension bought time; it did not change the rate the property has to refinance into. MBA expects the Federal Reserve to be near the end of its rate-cutting cycle. So the relief many borrowers were waiting for is largely already priced in. Our commercial appraisal work in 2026 has increasingly been on exactly these files.

What Credit Committees Are Asking For

The underwriting questions have not changed much. What has changed is how little tolerance there is for assumptions. Committees want sustainable NOI, not the peak year. They want vacancy assumptions that reflect the submarket, verified lease terms and rollover exposure, and normalized expenses that account for insurance and tax increases. Then an exit cap rate that would survive a skeptic.

A lender who orders the appraisal early gets those answers before the file is in front of the committee. A borrower who orders it early gets them before the lender does. That is the better position to negotiate from. Either way, the report replaces the argument. Instead of debating whether the 2021 value still holds, both sides work from a current opinion with the comparables and income analysis laid out.

This is also where property tax belongs in the conversation. A Cook County commercial assessment that runs above market value inflates the expense line. That drags NOI and shrinks the loan the property can support. An appraisal prepared for the refinance often becomes the evidence for an appeal, so the two efforts pay for each other.

Not Every Property Type Faces the Same Cliff

The maturity shares tell you where the pressure concentrates. Hotels carry the largest share of 2026 maturities by property type. Hotel income is also the most sensitive to travel demand and operating cost. Industrial has the second largest share. After years of strong rent growth, underwriting has become more careful about whether that growth continues in a given corridor.

Office is the type everyone expects to see on this list, and 17 percent of office loans do mature this year. The variation between buildings is wide. A leased suburban building and a half-empty tower downtown are both office. They will not appraise or refinance the same way. Multifamily has the smallest share maturing among the major types. Much of that is agency paper with ready refinancing options.

The lesson for a lender or an owner is that the headline number tells you very little about your loan. The property’s own income, its lease roll, its submarket, and its condition decide the outcome. That is what an appraisal is for. It is also why a generic model does not settle a credit committee.

If Your Loan Matures in the Next 18 Months

If you own the property, or advise the owner, start earlier than feels necessary. Ninety days before maturity is too late to source new capital, restructure with a partner, or bring in a second lender. Six to nine months out is when an appraisal gives you room to act on what it says.

Bring the appraiser the full picture. That means the rent roll, twelve months of operating statements, the current tax bill and any pending appeal, capital spending since the last appraisal, and the existing loan terms. An appraisal is only as good as the income it can verify. Then take the report to the lender before the lender’s own appraiser has been ordered. Walking in with a supported number and a plan for any gap is a different meeting than walking in with a hope.

A Slope Rewards the Prepared

The refinancing wave did not break all at once, and MBA’s data says the worst of it is behind the market. What is left is steadier and longer: $875 billion this year and $652 billion next year, much of it already extended. Most of it sits with the banks and private lenders who have the least room to pretend the 2021 value still stands.

For a lender, the early appraisal is how a maturing loan becomes a workable refinance instead of a workout. For an owner, it is how an equity gap becomes a known number with a plan attached, not a surprise at the closing table. Either way, the number has to be current, supported, and written so a credit committee can test it.

Commercial Appraisals Built for Credit Review

PahRoo appraises office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and mixed-use property for lenders and owners across Chicago and Cook County. Our commercial appraisal reports are written for refinancing, restructuring, and litigation, with the income approach shown in full. The same team handles Cook County property tax appeal appraisals, which often start from the same refinance file.